This is an excerpt from EERE Network News, a weekly electronic newsletter.
EIA Sees 60 Percent Growth in World Energy Use by 2020
World energy use will increase 60 percent over the next two decades, according to a new report by DOE's Energy Information Administration (EIA). The "International Energy Outlook 2002" expects much of the growth to occur in the developing world, particularly in the developing parts of Asia — China, India and South Korea — and in Central and South America. The growth in world energy use is expected to result in a 59 percent increase in petroleum production and a near doubling in production of natural gas.
Energy efficiency is expected to contribute to a steady decline in energy intensity, the amount of energy used per unit of gross domestic product. That, combined with a shift away from carbon-intensive fuels, will lead to a reduction in carbon intensity, the amount of carbon dioxide produced per unit of gross domestic product. But overall world carbon emissions are still expected to increase by 62 percent by 2020.
The report anticipates a 53 percent growth in renewable energy use by 2020, but that growth rate would actually lead to a drop in world market share, from 9 percent of total energy consumption down to 8 percent. Much of the anticipated growth is expected to come from large-scale hydropower facilities in Asia.
See the EIA press release, with a link to the full report.